Ensemble Forecast

 

With the help of ensemble prognoses it is possible not only to provide exact forecast data, but also to calculate the probability of occurence. This is achieved with a slightly simplified weather forecasting model which is calculated 50 times with differing initial conditions. The mean of the 50 runs is displayed in yellow. The results of the operational, fulldata forecast model are marked in red (operational run), the data of the slightly simplified forecast model with the same inital coniditions are shown in purple (control run).

Example of ensemble forecasts for one location

In addition to the display of temperature there are similar graphics for wind speed as well as precipitation amounts (in 12-hour steps and cumulated). The graphics are available for single locations, but they can also be displayed in a map of Europe for a better overview. Also included are derivative parameters such as

  • Probability of frost
  • Probability of storms (different strengths), important for wind power!
  • Probability of the occurence of high amounts of precipitation, important for hydro power!